How bad will climate change be with current policies?

Article by Hazell Ransome.

As part of the Paris Agreement, every country pledged to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably below 1.5°C [1,2]. Most countries have set out how they will try to achieve this under policies called Nationally Determined Contributions’ (NDCs) [3].

However, if we look at the promises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within these NDCs, currently over 7 out of 10 countries won’t succeed in achieving their Paris Agreement pledges [4]! In fact, on average emission reduction promises must become 5 times more effective within the next decade to keep temperatures below 1.5°C [12,13,14].

Many scientists believe we have little hope of restricting global warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C [5,6,7,8,9,10].

In fact, if global warming continues at its current rate, there is a 66% chance that we will reach 1.5°C of warming between 2030 and 2052 [15,16].

But global warming is in fact getting faster and faster [17] so drastic action – through policy, economics, and innovation – must be taken now to reduce emissions to limit these rising temperatures [18,19].


[1] ( The Truth Behind the Climate Pledges,Page 1 Paragraph 1 and 4)


[3] (Page 15 Paragraph 1)

[4] (Key Conclusions)

[5] (Section 2 Paragraph 1&4 and Section 8 Paragraph 1)

[6] (Paragraph 2)

[7] (Paragraph 1)

[8] (Paragraphs 1,2, and 3)

[9] (Abstract – 1.5 is not impossible but requires extremely challenging action)


[12] (Key messages, The Emissions Gap, Point 3)

(Paragraph 2- this shows that we can assume when the first ref says triple pledges that means emission reductions as adaptation is not relevant to temperature reduction)

[14] (Figure 3.1 and Table 3.1)

[15] (A.1)

[16] (Page 1 Paragraph 6)

[17] (Page 1 Paragraph 7)

[18] (Key messages, Climate insights point 3)

[19] (Page 2 Paragraph 4 and 5)

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