How bad will climate change be with current policies?

Article by Hazell Ransome.

As part of the Paris Agreement, every country pledged to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably below 1.5°C [1,2]. Most countries have set out how they will try to achieve this under policies called Nationally Determined Contributions’ (NDCs) [3].

However, if we look at the promises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within these NDCs, currently over 7 out of 10 countries won’t succeed in achieving their Paris Agreement pledges [4]! In fact, on average emission reduction promises must become 5 times more effective within the next decade to keep temperatures below 1.5°C [12,13,14].

Many scientists believe we have little hope of restricting global warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C [5,6,7,8,9,10].

In fact, if global warming continues at its current rate, there is a 66% chance that we will reach 1.5°C of warming between 2030 and 2052 [15,16].

But global warming is in fact getting faster and faster [17] so drastic action – through policy, economics, and innovation – must be taken now to reduce emissions to limit these rising temperatures [18,19].

References

[1] https://feu-us.org/behind-the-climate-pledges/ ( The Truth Behind the Climate Pledges,Page 1 Paragraph 1 and 4)

[2] https://unfccc.int/resource/bigpicture/index.html#content-the-paris-agreement

[3] https://ane4bf-datap1.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/wmocms/s3fs-public/ckeditor/files/United_in_Science_ReportFINAL_0.pdf?XqiG0yszsU_sx2vOehOWpCOkm9RdC_gN (Page 15 Paragraph 1)

[4] https://feu-us.org/behind-the-climate-pledges/ (Key Conclusions)

[5] https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/25759984.pdf?ab_segments=0%2Fbasic_expensive%2Fcontrol&refreqid=search%3Af900a72d5cd489c2ff4f4b579c55704e (Section 2 Paragraph 1&4 and Section 8 Paragraph 1)

[6] http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/362721468153549916/pdf/632190WP0Turn000Box374367B00PUBLIC0.pdf (Paragraph 2)

[7] https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/ (Paragraph 1)

[8] https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/time-to-boost-national-climate-action/ (Paragraphs 1,2, and 3)

[9] https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3031 (Abstract – 1.5 is not impossible but requires extremely challenging action)

[10] https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emission-scenarios

[12] https://ane4bf-datap1.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/wmocms/s3fs-public/ckeditor/files/United_in_Science_ReportFINAL_0.pdf?XqiG0yszsU_sx2vOehOWpCOkm9RdC_gN (Key messages, The Emissions Gap, Point 3)

[13]
https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs
(Paragraph 2- this shows that we can assume when the first ref says triple pledges that means emission reductions as adaptation is not relevant to temperature reduction)

[14]
https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2019 (Figure 3.1 and Table 3.1)

[15] https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/ (A.1)

[16] https://feu-us.org/behind-the-climate-pledges/ (Page 1 Paragraph 6)

[17] https://feu-us.org/behind-the-climate-pledges/ (Page 1 Paragraph 7)

[18] https://ane4bf-datap1.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/wmocms/s3fs-public/ckeditor/files/United_in_Science_ReportFINAL_0.pdf?XqiG0yszsU_sx2vOehOWpCOkm9RdC_gN (Key messages, Climate insights point 3)

[19] https://feu-us.org/behind-the-climate-pledges/ (Page 2 Paragraph 4 and 5)

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